Gold subdued by Fed’s higher-for-longer interest rate stance

Ashitha Shivaprasad Mon, September 25, 2023, 12:24 AM EDT In this article: 

(Reuters) – Gold prices were subdued on Monday as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields firmed on the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer stance on interest rates.

By Ashitha Shivaprasad

Spot gold was steady at $1,925.77 per ounce by 9:56 a.m. EDT (1356 GMT), while U.S. gold futures fell 0.2% to $1,942.40.

“Slightly hawkish Fed and global central banks are currently suppressing gold,” although some signs of economic stress are also keeping the market supported overall, said Everett Millman, chief market analyst at Gainesville Coins.

Millman forecast prices to trade between $1,910 and $1,950 for the rest of this quarter.

Fed officials warned on Friday of further rate hikes even after voting to hold the benchmark rate steady last week, with three policymakers saying they remain uncertain about whether the inflation battle is over.

Bullion tends to underperform when higher interest rates boost yields on rival safe-havens like U.S. bonds.

The dollar index was up 0.4%, while benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were near a 16-year peak.

“My baseline forecast is that gold will reach a new all-time high in 2024, if we see at least a mild recession in the global economy. If we get a recession, Fed will be forced to cut rates sooner,” Millman added.

Market focus now shifts towards the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which is scheduled to be released on Sept. 29.

Mirroring investor sentiment, holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, fell to their lowest level since Jan. 2020.

Spot silver fell 0.1% to $23.50 per ounce, platinum shed 1.1% to $916.22 and palladium dropped 0.6% to $1,241.14.

Lower Chinese palladium imports as a result of likely destocking could be a factor weighing on prices, alongside the ongoing substitution from palladium to platinum in auto catalysts, UBS wrote in a note.

(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad and Harshit Verma in Bengaluru; Editing by Sharon Singleton)

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